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Using Census data, this article examines the changing size and characteristics of the population over the last decade.

by Sam Bailey, NLEA Strategic Initiatives Manager

Has someone new joined your neighborhood or apartment building recently? Are they relocating within Northern Lower Michigan or relocating from out of state? Economic development professionals closely monitor demographic trends in the communities they serve because demographic shifts mean changes in workforce, school funding, housing prices, usage of public services, and so much more. In December, the US Census Bureau released its five-year estimates for 2021 from the American Community Survey. The data reveals that Northern Lower Michigan’s population is growing but still getting older.

Local communities felt the post-pandemic boom as lockdown orders were lifted and people flocked to the area for a multitude of reasons. While your town may have felt busier, how many of those people actually moved here? Table 1 shows county populations for the past decade and reveals that the region has been experiencing growth in recent years. Green shading signifies population growth from the previous year while red shading signifies population decline from the previous year.

Generally, the region’s population declined from 2010 to 2017 before beginning to rebound. Between 2020 to 2021, the regional population saw its largest increase in the past decade, 1,028 people. Much of that growth has been concentrated in Emmet County which added 771 people while Charlevoix County’s population shrunk slightly by 88 people. However, Charlevoix County’s population has been relatively consistent in the past twelve years, never straying further than 198 people from its 2010 level. The county’s consistency can partially be contributed to its strong manufacturing sector which provides year-round employment, relatively high wages, and benefits. Population growth can be good for businesses (more potential employees and consumers), schools (more potential employees and per-pupil funding), and local units of government (more tax dollars). However, it is important to examine the age breakdown of the population.

Northern Lower Michigan’s population has been aging in recent years. While not inherently bad, the trend poses a challenge due to increased demand for certain businesses and services but offers less working-age people to meet that demand. Has that trend held through recent population growth? Figure 1 below shows the age breakdown of Antrim, Charlevoix, Cheboygan, and Emmet Counties’ combined population over the past twelve years.

The data has two key implications: first, the regional population is continuing to age through recent growth; second, there has been some increase in the working-age population in recent years. Since 2010, the share of the region’s population 65-years-old and above increased from 18.5% to 25.2%, the largest change of any age group. Each county experienced growth in this demographic, but its 2021 size varies by county: Antrim 27.3%, Charlevoix 24.5%, Cheboygan 27.5%, and Emmet 22.5%. Across all four counties, the raw number and relative size of the 65+ age group increased between 2020 and 2021. A growing older population poses a challenge for the regional economy as retired individuals consume goods and services (homes, healthcare, food, etc.) without contributing the production of new goods and services. Northern Lower Michigan is not alone in this experience; the national population is undergoing changes as baby boomers age out of the workforce and younger generations have fewer children.

Fortunately for Northern Lower Michigan, there has been some growth in working age groups. The 20 to 29 age demographic grew slightly from 9.4% in 2010 to 10.1% in 2021. The 30 to 39 age demographic declined from 10.3% in 2010 to 9.4% in 2015 and 2016 but has fully rebounded to 10.4% in 2021. Despite gains in the young adult demographic, there are fewer children growing up locally to fill seasonal jobs while in school and eventually enter the local labor force. Between 2010 and 2021, the share of the population 0 to 9 and 10 to 19 declined by 2.2% and 2.1% respectively. The trend is partially driven declining national birth rate and a 4.2% decrease in the region’s population 40 to 49, typical years when individuals raise a family. While demographic data can be perplexing, the bottom line is that Northern Lower Michigan is experiencing—and will continue to experience—population trends that will reduce the local labor force.

Table 1 and Figure 1 focus on full-time residents, but everyone is familiar with the large seasonal fluctuations in population that the region experiences. In October, Networks Northwest released its Seasonal Population Study for Northwest Lower Michigan (Cheboygan County is not included). The study reveals the sheer magnitude of seasonal changes within the region, a portion of which is shown below in Table 2.

Residents of Northern Lower Michigan are well acquainted with the summer influx and the increased demand it places on local businesses, utilities, roads, and healthcare systems. Unfortunately, only a small portion of the seasonal population increase enters the local labor pool to help address heightened demand. In 2022, the combined labor force of Antrim, Charlevoix, Cheboygan, and Emmet Counties grew from 46,085 workers in January to 54,319 workers at its peak in July. The increase of 8,234 workers pales in comparison the population increase of over 90,000. Despite the small boost to the summer workforce, the regional labor force—seasonal and annual—has declined in recent years. Table 1 and Figure 1 have shown that our existing population is unlikely to meet the local economic demand for workers.

A growing population increases demand for goods and services while an aging population decreases the number of working-age individuals to meet demand. These trends pose a critical question, how do we attract and retain the talent necessary for the region to thrive? The NLEA is taking several steps to begin to address the ubiquitous challenge of attracting and retaining talent. The 2023 Northern Lakes Economic Symposium and Showcase will focus on this issue, bringing in academics and professionals to discuss talent issues through the lenses of different business types, communities, and age groups. Additionally, the 2023 NLEA/DTE Energy Foundation Intern Project will focus on developing social media content to better market the region, its businesses, and its communities to working-age individuals around the country.